Page 14 -

โครงการหนังสืออิเล็กทรอนิกส์ด้านการเกษตร เฉลิมพระเกียรติพระบาทสมเด็จพระเจ้าอยู่หัว

Abstract

The objective of this research is to quantify the impact of agricultural policies in various

forms in terms of ex-ante evaluation, in order to obtain information that can be used as a
basis for estimating the economy-wide impact of other interested agricultural policies to

various dimensions of development goals such as economic growth, economic stability,

employment, poverty and income distribution, including environmental impact.

The analysed agricultural policies are those at the fundamental policy variable level,

in order to be able to apply to the more specific agricultural policies. These policies deal with
production, production factors, transport and distribution of goods, consumption, import-

export, and subsidies in the agricultural sector.

The tool used in the analysis is the Computable General Equilibrium Model (CGE),

which is an economy-wide and multi-sectoral economic model. It was linked with the

Household Microsimulation Model to measure the impact on poverty, income distribution and
farmers' households. The database of Household Microsimulation Model is obtained from the

socio-economic survey data. The database of the CGE model is derived from the Input-Output

Table of the year 2010. Researchers have updated the database to that of the year 2017 by
using the National Income data, and using the Scaling Approach with Maximum Entropy to

minimize the errors.

The results of this study show the size and diversification of impacts from various

agricultural policies towards the development goals in each dimension. It is found that under
the context of general equilibrium, indirect impacts might play an important role, as compared

to direct impacts. In addition, the impact of agricultural policies on various dimensions of the

development goals has a trade-off characteristic. Furthermore, even with the same policy but
when applied to different production sectors, it may have different impact on the economy.

Therefore, policy formulation needs to take into account the appropriateness in applying the
policy to each specific production sector.

Most of policies related to production and production factors that result in increasing
production efficiency will mostly cause the overall economy to grow and decrease the

inflation rate. However, they might also worsen the situation of poverty and income

distribution, depending on which sectors the policy is applied. Increasing production efficiency

ญ