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โครงการหนังสืออิเล็กทรอนิกส์ด้านการเกษตร เฉลิมพระเกียรติพระบาทสมเด็จพระเจ้าอยู่หัว

Abstract

This research aims to study on rural structure transformation, effect of migration to agriculture sector

and simulate impact of potential future policy on rural income and resource used. In this study, we use village
census data of a village call “Sub Jaroen” in Sabputsa sub-district, Chon Daen district, Phetchaboon province,

collected in 2009 and 2018.

The results show that from 2009 to 2018 household changed their main source of income from

agriculture to non-agriculture. In real term, income per capita increased 84.85 percent. Number of household
below consumption poverty line decreased from 62.86 to 55.42 percent. However, debt per capita raised 158.17

percent and income inequality seems to be higher as GINI Index increase from 0.472 to 0.591. A major finding

from econometric model is that migration households have less income per capita and agriculture income per

capita than non-migration households. In addition, factors that influence the household’s migration decision is
social network between villager groups. This factor shows that households are tend to have peer effect to migrant

from their kin or neighbor. And factor of households who settle down in the village after agricultural land right

provide tend to stay in village.

The result from using Positive Mathematical Programing to simulate impact of potential future policy.
We found that maize price policy and tamarind process’s marketing policy generate more village’s net income

than the increase minimum wage policy. In addition, Agriculture policy impact only for cultivate activities. It

less likely to affect other income activities such as wage employment, self-employment and migration.
Therefore, we conclude that the agricultural policy is not able to pull those who work outside of agriculture or
those who migrate back to cultivate.

In summary, this research point out rural village development problem and decreasing of agricultural

role in rural village. Household migration strategies have negative impact on rural economy and Agriculture

policy cannot bring migrant back to village. In order to improve rural economies, researcher suggest to increase
non-farm employment opportunities of in rural area.